Surprisingly stats still on our side


Conversation started by CyprusTel

CyprusTel • Mar 20, 2016

It's been over a month since my last post showing the mathematical probabilities and what a month that's been. In view of the recent dressing room drama and the losses at bottom clubs Rotherham and Charlton I thought it was time to revisit the figures to see how much damage had been done and what we could now expect. The results were actually surprising

Average points/game for the top 4 are

Burnley 1.97
Brighton 1.87
Boro 1.89
Hull 1.78

If this average is then extrapolated over the entire 46 games of the season then the final points tally will be

Burnley 91
Brighton 86
Boro 87
Hull 82

This would mean a 2nd place finish for Boro. Now if only life were that simple and predictable. It does look as if the final game of the season against BHA is going to be make or break, but then if the season was actually that predictable it would be boring.

Still, can't help feeling a little confidence that we've turned the corner and put the little 'blip' behind us. UTB!

boroboy • Mar 30, 2016

Very interesting post again, nice one CyprusTel!

That automatic promotion spot is so close it's in touching distance. One things for sure its going to be an exciting/nerve-racking end of the season. Any predictions for the QPR game?

CyprusTel • Mar 31, 2016

Thanks. I think QPR is going to be a close fight but if Ayala is back and can hold the line I think we can nick it by one goal. I don't worry as much as some about the Rotherham and Charlton games. Rotherham are fighting for survival and they've shown since beating us that it wasn't a fluke, they have something about them. Charlton was a complete aberration following on as it did from the off-field turmoil. It also wasn't helped by the outrageous behaviour of the CAFC supporters, particularly with the whistling (which went quiet every time they came forward). Personally I think the ref should've abandoned the game at 0-0, maybe replayed behind closed doors (but that's in the past and too late to change). Since then Nugent has scored against Hull and Rhodes against Sunderland. I hope this has boosted confidence and I think we'll see a return to form for the last 9 games. Feeling quietly confident.

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